Published

Publications are listed below in reverse chronological order. Some files available from this page are subject to the copyright provisions of the American Meteorological Society and American Geophysical Union. Preprints of papers in press or submitted by members of the Applied Climate Dynamics Group are available upon request and will be fulfilled on a case-by-case basis. Please email Dr. Jason Furtado for requests.

Authors with an asterisk (*) next to their names are undergraduate or graduate student authors. Authors in bold are members of the Applied Climate Dynamics Research Group.


2024

  1. Foskey, S. R.*, N. Sakaeda, J. Basara, and J. C. Furtado, 2024: The impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on extreme winter weather over the contiguous United States. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
  2. Chiappa, J.*, D. B. Parsons, J. C. Furtado, and A. Shapiro, 2024: Extreme convective rainfall events in the central United States during the summer: 2003-2021 trends and interannual variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.
  3. Woolnough, S., F. Vitart, A. W. Robertson, C. Coelho, R. Lee, H. Lin, A. Kumar, C. Stan, M. Balmaseda, A. Caltabiano, M. Yamaguchi, H. Afargan‐Gerstman, F.M. De Andrade, D. Büeler, A. Carreric, D. A. Campos Diaz, J. Day, J. Dorrington, M. Feldmann, J. C. Furtado, C. Grams, R. Koster, L. Hirons, V. S. Indasi, P. Jadhav, Y. Liu, P. Nying’uro, C. Roberts, E. Rouges, and J. Ryu, 2023: Celebrating 10 years of the Sub‐Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and looking to the future. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 105, E521–E526, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0323.1. [PDF]


2023

  1. Christian, J., J. B. Basara, E. R. Martin, J. C. Furtado, J. A. Otkin, L. L. E. Lowman, E. D. Hunt, V. Mishra, and X. Xiao, 2023: Global projections of flash drought in a warming climate. Comm. Earth & Environ., 4, 165, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00826-1. [PDF]
  2. Di Lorenzo, E., T. Xu, Y. Zhao, M. Newman, A. Capotondi, S. Stevenson, D. Amaya, B. Anderson, R. Ding, J. C. Furtado, Y. Joh, G. Liguori, J. Lou, A. J. Miller, G. Navarra, N. Schneider, D. Vimont, S. Wu, and H. Zhang, 2023: Modes and mechanisms of Pacific decadal-scale variability. Ann. Rev. Marine Sci., 15, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-040422-084555. [PDF]


2022

  1. Millin, O. T.*, and J. C. Furtado, 2022: The role of wave breaking in the development and subseasonal forecasts of the February 2021 Great Plains Cold Air Outbreak. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100835, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100835. [PDF].
  2. Cohen, J., L. Agel, M. Barlow, J. C. Furtado, M. Kretschmer, and V. Wendt, 2022: The “Polar Vortex” winter of 2013/14. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 127, e2022JD036493, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036493. [PDF]
  3. Zekavat, S., F. Afghah, R. Askari, J. Delabrouille, N. French, J. C. Furtado, S. Hanany, and V. Lubecke, 2022: Electromagnetic spectrum contribution in astronomy, health, atmospheric, geology, and environment applications. Intl. J. Wire. Info., https://doi.org/10.1007/s10776-022-00558-7. [PDF]
  4. Lee, S. H.*, A. J. Charlton-Perez, S. J. Woolnough, and J. C. Furtado, 2022: How do stratospheric perturbations influence North American weather regime predictions? J. Climate, 35, 5915-5932, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0413.1. [PDF]
  5. Millin, O. T.*, J. C. Furtado, and J. B. Basara, 2022: Characteristics, evolution, and formation of cold air outbreaks in the Great Plains of the United States. J. Climate, 35, 4585-4602, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0772.1 [PDF]
  6. Rogers, M. H.*, J. C. Furtado, and B. T. Anderson, 2022: The Pacific Decadal Precession and its relationship to tropical Pacific decadal variability in CMIP6 models. Climate Dyn., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06114-y. [PDF]


2021

  1. Christian, J. I.*, J. B. Basara, E. D. Hunt, J. A. Otkin, J. C. Furtado, V. Mishra, X. Xiao, and R. Randall, 2021: Global distribution and trends of flash drought occurrence. Nature Comm., 12, 6330, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26692-z. [PDF]
  2. Wakefield, R. A.*, J. B. Basara, J. M. Shepherd, N. Brauer*, J. A. Santanello, Jr., and J. C. Furtado, 2021: The inland maintenance and re-intensification of Tropical Storm Bill (2015) Part 1: Contributions of the Brown Ocean Effect. J. Hydrometeor., https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0150.1. [PDF]
  3. Dickinson, T. A.*, M. B. Richman, and J. C. Furtado, 2021: Subseasonal to seasonal extreme precipitation events in the contiguous United States: Generation of a database and climatology. J. Climate, 34, 7571-7586, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0580.1. [PDF]
  4. Furtado, J. C., J. Cohen, E. J. Becker, and D. C. Collins, 2021: Evaluating the relationship between sudden stratospheric warmings and tropospheric weather regimes in the NMME Phase-2 models. Climate Dyn., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05591-x. [PDF]


2020

  1. Lee, S. H.*, A. J. Charlton-Perez, J. C. Furtado, and S. J. Woolnough, 2020: Representation of the Scandinavia-Greenland pattern and its relationship with the polar vortex in S2S forecast models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 4083-4098, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3892.   [PDF]
  2. Flournoy, M. D.*, M. C. Coniglio, E. N. Rasmussen, J. C. Furtado, and B. E. Coffer, 2020: Modes of storm-scale variability and tornado potential in VORTEX2 near- and far-inflow tornadic environments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 4185-4207, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0147.1.  [PDF]
  3. Jennrich, G. C.*, J. C. Furtado, J. Basara, and E. Martin, 2020: Synoptic characteristics of 14-day extreme precipitation events across the United States. J. Climate, 33, 6423-6440, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0563.1.  [PDF]
  4. Pegion, K., C. M. Selman, S. Larson, J. C. Furtado, and E. J. Becker, 2020: The impact of the extratropics on ENSO diversity and predictability. Climate Dyn., 54, 4469–4484, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05232-3. [PDF]
  5. Domeisen, D. I., A. H. Butler, A. J. Charlton-Perez, B. Ayarzagüena, M. P. Baldwin, E. Dunn-Sigouin, J. C. Furtado, C. I. Garfinkel, P. Hitchcock, A. Y. Karpechko, J. Knight, A. Lang, E.-P. Lim, Y. Lim, A. Marshall, C. Schwartz, I. R. Simpson, S.-W. Son, K. Song, and M. Taguchi, 2020: The role of stratosphere – troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction: 2. Predictability arising from stratosphere – troposphere coupling. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 125, e2019JD030923, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030923. [PDF]
  6. Domeisen, D. I., A. H. Butler, A. J. Charlton-Perez, B. Ayarzagüena, M. P. Baldwin, E. Dunn-Sigouin, J. C. Furtado, C. I. Garfinkel, P. Hitchcock, A. Y. Karpechko, J. Knight, A. Lang, E.-P. Lim, Y. Lim, A. Marshall, C. Schwartz, I. R. Simpson, S.-W. Son, K. Song, and M. Taguchi, 2020: The role of stratosphere – troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction: 1. Predictability in the stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 125, e2019JD030920,  https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030920. [PDF]


2019

  1. Lee, S. H.*, J. C. Furtado, and A. J. Charlton-Perez, 2019: Wintertime North American weather regimes and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14,892 – 14,900. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085592. [PDF]
  2. Green, M. R.* and J. C. Furtado, 2019: Evaluating the joint influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the stratospheric polar vortex on weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 11693–11709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030771. [PDF]
  3. You, Y.* and J. C. Furtado, 2019: The relationship between South Pacific atmospheric internal variability and ENSO in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Phase-II Models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12398–12407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084637. [PDF]
  4. Barnes, E. A., S. Samarasinghe*, I. Ebert-Uphoff, and J. C. Furtado, 2019: Tropospheric and stratospheric causal pathways between the MJO and NAO. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 9356-9371, doi:10.1029/2019JD0310254. [PDF]
  5. Flanagan, P. X.*, J. B. Basara, J. C. Furtado, E. R. Martin, and X. Xiao, 2019: Role of Pacific sea surface temperatures in United States Great Plains pluvial years. J. Climate, 32, 7081-7100, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0726.1. [PDF]
  6. Lee, S. H.*, A. J. Charlton-Perez, J. C. Furtado, and S. J. Woolnough, 2019: Abrupt stratospheric vortex weakening associated with North Atlantic anticyclonic wave breaking. J. Geophys. Res., 124, 8563-8575, doi: 10.1029/2019JD030940. [PDF]
  7. Kuster, C. M., J. C. Snyder, T. J. Schuur, T. Lindley, P. L. Heinselman, J. C. Furtado, J. W. Brogden, and R. Toomey, 2019: Rapid-update radar observations of ZDR column depth and its use in the warning decision process. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1173–1188, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0024.1. [PDF]
  8. Wakefield, R. A.*, J. B. Basara, J. C. Furtado, B. G. Illston, C. R. Ferguson, and P. Klein, 2019: A modified framework for quantifying land–atmosphere covariability during hydrometeorological and soil wetness extremes in Oklahoma. J. Meteor. Appl. Climatol., 58, 1465–1483, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0230.1 [PDF]
  9. Furtado, J. C., 2019: Links between autumn snow cover and sea ice extent and Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability. U.S. CLIVAR Variations, Spring 2019 Edition, 12–19, https://indd.adobe.com/view/b0e5a374-5321-4058-a31d-4b2130ac765e. [PDF]

2018

  1. You, Y.* and J. C. Furtado, 2018: The South Pacific Meridional Mode and its role in tropical Pacific climate variability. J. Climate, 31, 10141–10163, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0860.1. [PDF]
  2. Henderson, G. R., Y. Peings, J. C. Furtado, and P. Kushner, 2018: Snow-atmosphere coupling in the Northern Hemisphere. Nature Climate Change, 8, 954-963, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0295-6. [PDF]
  3. Flanagan, P. X.*, J. B. Basara, J. C. Furtado, and X. Xiao, 2018: Primary atmospheric drivers of pluvial years in the United States Great Plains. J. Hydrometeor., 19, 643–658, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-17-0148.1. [PDF]

2017

  1. You, Y.* and J. C. Furtado, 2017: The role of South Pacific atmospheric variability in the development of different types of ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett. ,44, 7438–7446, doi:10.1002/2017GL073475. [PDF]
  2. Anderson, B. T., J. C. Furtado, E. Di Lorenzo, and D. J. S. Gianotti*, 2017: Tracking the Pacific Decadal Precession. J. Geophys. Res., 122, 3214—3227, doi:10.1002/2016JD025962. [PDF]

2016

  1. Anderson. B. T., D. J. S. Gianotti*, G. Salvucci, and J. C. Furtado, 2016: Dominant timescales of potentially predictable precipitation variations across the continental United States. J. Climate, 29, 8881–8897, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0635.1. [PDF]
  2. Furtado, J. C., J. Cohen, and E. Tziperman, 2016: The combined influences of autumnal snow and sea ice on Northern Hemisphere winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3478–3485, doi:10.1002/2016GL068108. [PDF]
  3. Anderson. B. T., D. J. S. Gianotti*, J. C. Furtado, and E. Di Lorenzo, 2016: A decadal precession of atmospheric pressures over the North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3921–3927, doi:10.1002/2016GL068206. [PDF]

2015

  1. Di Lorenzo, E., G. Liguori*, N. Schneider, J. C. Furtado, B. T. Anderson, and M. A. Alexander, 2015: ENSO and meridional modes: A null hypothesis for Pacific climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9440 – 9448, doi: 10.1002/2015GL066281.  [PDF]
  2. Furtado, J. C., J. L. Cohen, A. H. Butler, E. E. Riddle, and A. Kumar, 2015: Eurasian snow cover variability and links to winter climate in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dyn., 45, 2591 – 2605, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2494-4. [PDF]

2014

  1. Cohen, J., J. A. Screen, J. C. Furtado, M. Barlow, D. Whittleston*, D. Coumou, J. Francis, K. Dethloff, D. Entekhabi, J. Overland, and J. E. Jones, 2014: Recent Arctic Amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nature Geosci., 7, 627 – 637, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2234.  [PDF]
  2. Cohen, J., J. C. Furtado, J. Jones, M. Barlow, D. Whittleston*, and D. Entekhabi, 2014: Linking Siberian snow cover to precursors of stratospheric variability. J. Climate, 27, 5422 – 5432, doi: 10.1175/jcli-d-13-00779.1. [PDF]

2013

  1. Di Lorenzo, E., V. Combes, J. E. Keister, T. P. Strub, A. C. Thomas, P. J. S. Franks, M. D. Ohman, J. C. Furtado, A. Bracco, S. J. Bograd, W. T. Peterson, F. B. Schwing, S. Chiba, B. Taguchi, S. Hormazabal, and C. Parada, 2013: Synthesis of Pacific Ocean climate & ecosystems dynamics. Oceanography, 26, 68 – 81, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.76.   [PDF]
  2. Cohen, J. L., J. Jones, J. C. Furtado, and E. Tziperman, 2013: Warm Arctic, cold continents: A common pattern related to Arctic sea ice melt, snow advance, and extreme winter weather. Oceanography, 26, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.70. [PDF]
  3. Anderson, B. T., J. C. Furtado, K. M. Cobb and E. Di Lorenzo, 2013: Extratropical forcing of El Niño/Southern Oscillation asymmetry. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4916 – 4921, doi: 10.1002/grl.50951.   [PDF]
  4. Riddle, E. E., A. H. Butler, J. C. Furtado, J. L. Cohen, and A. Kumar, 2013: CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 41, 1099 – 1116, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1850-5. [PDF]

2012

  1. Furtado, J. C., E. Di Lorenzo, B. T. Anderson, and N. Schneider, 2012: Linkages between the North Pacific Oscillation and central tropical Pacific SSTs at low frequencies. Climate Dyn., 39, 2833 – 2846, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1245-4. [PDF]
  2. Cohen, J., J. C. Furtado, M. A. Barlow, V. A. Alexeev, and J. C. Cherry, 2012: Arctic warming,increasing snow cover, and widespread boreal winter cooling. Env. Res. Lett., 7, 014007, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007.   [PDF]
  3. Cohen, J., J. C. Furtado, M. A. Barlow, V. A. Alexeev, and J. C. Cherry, 2012: Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04705, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050582.   [PDF]

2011

  1. Furtado, J. C., and E. Di Lorenzo, 2011: Pacific climate variability in IPCC coupled climate models. In PICES Scientific Report No. 40: Report of Working Group 20 on Evaluations of Climate Change Projections, 165 pp.
    [PDF]
  2. Furtado, J. C., E. Di Lorenzo, N. Schneider, and N. Bond 2011: North Pacific decadal variability and climate change in the IPCC AR4 models. J. Climate, 24, 3049 – 3067, doi: 10.1175/2010jcli3584.1. [PDF]

2010

  1. Di Lorenzo, E., K. M. Cobb, J. C. Furtado, N. Schneider, B. Anderson, A. Bracco, M. A. Alexander, and D. Vimont, 2010: Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific. Nature Geosci., 3, 762 – 765, doi: 10.1038/ngeo984. [PDF]

2009

  1. Furtado, J. C., E. Di Lorenzo, K. M. Cobb, and A. Bracco, 2009: Paleoclimate reconstructions of tropical sea surface temperatures from precipitation proxies: Methods, uncertainties and nonstationarity. J. Climate, 22, 1104 – 1123, doi: 10.1175/2008jcli2415.1. [PDF]

2006

  1. Thompson, D. W. J., J. C. Furtado, and T. G. Shepherd, 2006: On the tropospheric response to anomalous stratospheric wave drag and radiative heating. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2616 – 2629, doi: 10.1175/JAS3771.1.   [PDF]

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